Hillman May Be Ready to Move On

I think Trey Hillman is ready to be done. I can feel it.

The manager of the Royals looks tired. He looks confused. When his decisions are questioned, he seems to get defensive, and there's a look about him that gives you the feeling he may not really want to manage this team anymore.

Royals fans have seen this before.

The Royals just completed their longest road trip of the season, after a 6-4 loss to the Texas Rangers on Sunday. They went 3-8 on the trip, including getting swept in a four game series by Texas, and have currently lost five straight. They now find themselves, somehow, ten games under .500 at 11-21, last in the A.L. Central and 11.5 games back of the first place Minnesota Twins.

Yep. Sounds familiar.

Obviously, it's not all Hillman's fault. Not even close. The numerous bad free-agent signings made by GM Dayton Moore in the last couple of off-seasons have been well documented. The failure to develop sure-thing prospects certainly can't be blamed on the manager, either. The talent on the current major league roster is average at best.

Nevertheless, the Royals aren't average. They're not even bad. Ten games under .500 after five weeks of the season is horrendous.

Yet they're still third in the A.L. in hitting. The bullpen has somewhat seemed to settle down. Their starters are giving them a chance to win at, the very least, an average rate. So what gives?

Inevitably, yet fairly, we must look to the manager.

. . .

I found Saturday night's game versus Texas an especially frustrating one to watch.

Let's jump to the top of the seventh inning. It's a tie game. The Royals have a runner at third, two outs, and first baseman Kila Ka'aihue, getting his first start of the season, is due up. There's a lefty on the mound, and Kila is a left-handed hitter. Hillman had given Jose Guillen the night off, so he's available to pinch hit. Hillman does use Guillen as a pinch hitter, and he fails to drive the run in.

Now, if you're down by one or two runs in that situation, it seems pretty obvious to me that you send Guillen up to hit. He's your best power hitter and can tie the game or take the lead with one swing.

In a tie game though, there are many cons to that decision. Firstly, if you need a pinch hit later in the game, possibly in extra innings as the game looked to be destined for, you no longer have Guillen available. Secondly, unless you want to take Guillen's bat out of the lineup for the rest of the game, you have to put him in the field somewhere, and I can't figure anyone liking the idea of that.

Hillman chose to leave Guillen in the game and put him in right field, moving David DeJesus to left field, and moving Scott Podsednik from left field to center field. That forced Mitch Maier (who had made two spectacular plays in the game at center field already) to move to first base.

Maier, an above-average center fielder, had never played first base in a major league game before Saturday. DeJesus hadn't played left field since last season. And, of course, Guillen has proven to be worthy of the designated hitter role eternally.

Now, all the sudden, the Royals had four players (including Podsednik) who are either below average at their position or haven't played the position they're at this season - and of course, in Maier's case, any season.

The alternative to all this defensive shuffling would have been to simply use Willie Bloomquist in place of Guillen after his pinch hit at-bat, and put him at first base where Ka'aihue was playing. You then have generally your best defensive lineup in for the game's final few innings. More on that in a moment.

. . .

It's the bottom of the eighth now, and Gil Meche is easily having his best pitching performance of the season. He's already over 100 pitches, though. Given his injury history, it's a mere certainty Hillman will go to the bullpen now. Also, Meche has struggled all season, and it's important for him to leave the game on a good note.

Oddly, Hillman chooses to stay with Meche for the eighth. The first batter walks. It's the sixth free pass he's given out on the night. The camera moves to Hillman, who looks ready to walk out of the dugout and pull Meche. Usually, when managers stretch their starters this long, it only takes a baserunner to get the hook.

Instead, Hillman stays with Meche. The baserunner is caught stealing, so the decision seems to be vindicated, at least for the moment. The next batter walks. It's Meche's seventh of the game. The camera goes to Hillman, who again remains in the dugout. Two arms are ready in the bullpen if the manager needs them. Not yet, though.

The next hitter reaches on an infield single. Now there's two on and one out. The game is tied, and hot hitting Vladimir Guerrero is coming to the plate. This time Hillman comes out to talk to Meche, whose pitch count now is roughly 120. Hillman decides to stay with Meche.

Meche gets Guerrero on a fly out. There's two out now, and it's starting to look like the Royals may just get out of this jam. Meche needs one more.

Now remember all that defensive shuffling a minute ago? This is when the decision to leave Guillen in the game (or use him as a pinch hitter at all) will come back to haunt Hillman. The next hitter, former Mizzou star Ian Kinsler, hits a line-drive to right. The ball looks catchable. The ball is catchable. Guillen runs in toward it. It looks like he can get to it. He doesn't. The ball drops, and by the replay, it looks as if it almost hit Guillen on the top of his cleats.

Royals fans collectively groan. It's probably a safe assumption that DeJesus would have gotten to the ball, but you never know. Either way, the go-ahead and eventual game-winning run scores. Another winnable game ends in a losing effort.

. . .

This is the life of the manager of the Kansas City Royals. When at a disadvantage talent-wise, the game management is under an even bigger microscope. Questionable decisions will often backfire. Worst-case scenarios become reality. The losses begin to weigh on the city and the team. Most of all, though, the losses take their toll on the manager, and there's only the next decision, next game, or next season for a chance at redemption.

It's likely the opportunity for Hillman has come and gone, and I get the sense he's okay with that.

*Thanks to firedayton.blogspot.com and Tony Gutierrez of kansascity.com for the images.

Conventional Wisdom Could Be the Problem

There's an interesting section of The Kansas City Star's website that has kind of gone under my radar for the first month of the season. It's called 'Judging the Royals', and it's based on a somewhat unorthodox system used to judge the Royals, mostly individually, over the course of the season.

The system is based off the 'Most Valuable Player' chart created some three decades ago by Coach Ron Polk, a member of the College Baseball Hall of Fame and the winningest coach in SEC history. After tweaking the system a bit with the help of Polk, Star contributor Lee Judge launched the updated system and site before the start of the current Royals season.

You can check it out for yourself, but basically, as Polk explains, "the system is designed to reward good baseball, hustle, and effort while punishing giving away free bases through walks and errors."

It seems pretty obvious, to me at least, that most coaches in baseball would already be preaching this type of attitude and philosophy on a daily basis, anyway. But not so fast.

The system's biggest influence, for pitchers anyway, is to throw strikes. The system does not punish hits. It punishes walks, especially lead-off walks to start an inning, worse than, say, a pitcher who gives up four runs or more in an appearance. Polk's opinion is that he can live with whatever happens when a pitcher throws strikes. He knows that with that, his pitchers will give up hits, and he can live with that.

"He's focused on effort and approach, not results, because he knows if the effort is correct, over time, the results will be there," Judge says.

The system also recognizes things that would go unnoticed in a box score. It rewards a catcher for not allowing a runner to advance by blocking a pitch in the dirt. There are also point categories for making a tough play look easy and mental mistakes - Billy Butler are you listening - that may have caused another teammate to commit an error.

I guess my point is that it's a shame that this isn't considered conventional wisdom in baseball, or at least with the Royals. It's a shame any of us could get this impressed by a system that seems so simple and obvious. Having watched the Royals lose the way they have (because of the bullpen) for the first month of this season, and really, for the last two decades, you just have to wonder what's really going on with this team.

How many lead-off walks does it take? How many failed sacrifices or unproductive outs or missed cut-off men does it take? Is it not time to buy into unconventional wisdom, or should we wait for another ten years of losing before considering alternatives?

Manager Trey Hillman cannot afford to wait. This is the last year of Hillman's contract and it's decision time for General Manager Dayton Moore. If Moore decides to offer Hillman a contract extension, it could ultimately end up costing both of them their jobs. If Moore decides to fire Hillman, then, well, Coach Polk, are you available?

Anyway, on to the game..

The Royals found a way to waste ANOTHER great start by pitcher Zack Greinke today, losing 1-0 to the Tampa Bay Rays. It's really come to the point where I would seriously not be surprised if we woke up tomorrow to hear that Greinke has quit baseball again.

I only had one beef with the way Hillman managed this one. First though, it's worth noting that he didn't have much to work with as the Royals only managed three hits off Rays rookie starting pitcher Wade Davis.*

*Why does it seem like the Royals always make rookie starting pitchers look like Cy Young Award winners? Since I can remember, it has always been a sign of bad things to come when I hear the Royals are facing a rookie, or even just facing a guy for the first time. On the other hand, it never seems to bode well for the Royals when they run out an unprepared rookie pitcher for the first time. Hmm.

Still, in the second inning, with two on, and nobody out, Hillman chose to bunt with Jason Kendall to advance the runners. Kendall popped the bunt up for an out, though, and the runners stayed put. The Royals, obviously given the final score, didn't score in the inning.

You may remember my blog about playing for the big inning versus small ball. The general point there was that, over the course of a season, trying to sacrifice runners ends up costing a team runs (and wins) over the long haul because the chances of getting a big inning are lowered after handing the opponent an out.

Now, let's fast forward to the seventh inning. At this point, the Rays are up 1-0, but the Royals have a runner at second with nobody out, and Mitch Maier is at the plate. My overall opinion about playing small ball is that, if you're going to use it, it should only be used in the seventh inning or later, in a one-run or tie game.

Let's not worry about my opinion, though. Regardless of what I think, Hillman has already played small ball once in the game, and most managers would tell you that if you're ever going to use it, now is the time. Mitch Maier has good bat control and the Royals desperately need a run. This is when you forgo the big inning to make sure and tie the game.

Hillman, instead, opted this time to let the hitter swing away. As we know, it did not end well, as the next three Royal hitters failed to come through. The Royals lost the game. Zack Greinke lost the game, and is now 0-3 with a 2.27 ERA. What's worse is the Royals are now 1-5 in his starts.* Ugh.

*I could go on about the Royals absolute WASTE of the best pitcher in baseball, but that has already been well documented by Joe Posnanski in the Star and on his blog. You really have to check it out, it's stunning.

Back to the point. The Royals offense today, while struggling, still had an opportunity to get a run or two if they could have just made the most of their opportunities. Managers in baseball absolutely love putting their stamp on the game, though some would argue that baseball is the sport where coaching has the least to do with the outcome. Actually, that's probably why most baseball managers jump at the chance to make an impact in the game.

Anyway, today, when presented with the opportunity on two different occasions, Hillman made the wrong decision in both instances. I'm not saying the Royals lost because of Hillman. The Royals lost for many reasons, and when you get three hits and lose 1-0, it's hard to blame the loss on the manager. But with the talent disadvantage the Royals seem to be at, it will be absolutely impossible for them to win with Hillman's odd and inconsistent decision-making, like we saw today.