The Purpose of Moneyball

There is a major motion-picture hitting theaters Friday — a movie in which its release I have been anticipating for quite some time.

For reasons beyond your or my control, the relative importance of this movie's story has never been greater, yet, in an all-for-naught manner, its ending may prove that the basis for its tale has never been more obsolete.

The movie, of course, is called Moneyball.

Memoirs of a Misguided Sports Fan

This past weekend was a fairly interesting and eventful few days on the Kansas City sports front. The Chiefs, with their seemingly popular new rookie class, opened up their preseason schedule against the Falcons in Atlanta on Friday. Meanwhile, the struggling Royals hosted the hated New York Yankees for four games in yet another David vs. Goliath style matchup.

This is how it all looked from my vantage point..

* * *

Let's start with Friday, which, at least when the weekend began, was the day most fans in this city (including myself) were looking forward to the most. It was amazing to see how quickly the hype and excitement surrounding the Chiefs coming into this season seemed to vanish. In my previous post, I mentioned a few things to look for during the game that might help clue us in on how much this team has really improved.

Well, if we were to use that as a basis, the results are mostly mixed. Branden Albert looked okay, but the ultimate goal of him improving is to see the offensive line perform better as a whole. That did not happen, at least while the Falcons first-team defense was still in the game.  In limited play, new addition Thomas Jones had little room to the run the ball between the tackles, and it wasn't until the second quarter when Jamaal Charles checked in that the running game really even got going. By then, the Atlanta starters were already out of the game, making the results less signifcant. Also, right tackle Ryan O'Callaghan whiffed on a block on the second offensive series, leading to a sack and fumble by quarterback Matt Cassel.

Cassel didn't look great at all Friday, either. His final stats (other than the fumble) may have looked up to par - six of eight for 25 yards - but you have to look deeper. During one series on third down, Cassel took a sack when he had an opportunity to throw the ball away and secure a very makeable field goal attempt. The sack led to the attempt by kicker Ryan Succop being much longer, and of course, he missed it. Playoff quarterbacks do not make those kinds of mistakes.

It was surprising to see that, at least to my knowledge, Cassel (or any of the quarterbacks) never even targeted receiver Dwayne Bowe on a pass attempt. Now, it's possible that was more of a product of conservative play-calling than anything else. Still, even in the first preseason game, it's a bad sign.

And we haven't even elaborated on the fumble play, which could have easily been avoided. The block was missed by the right tackle, which isn't a right-handed quarterback's blind side. So your guess is as good as mine as to why Cassel didn't simply step up in the pocket and roll to the outside, which he clearly had plenty of room to do, to try and make a play. Instead, he tried to rush his throw, but his arm was hit by Atlanta defensive end Kroy Biermann, and the ball was knocked loose before the tuck rule could come into play.

There were some encouraging signs to speak of Friday. Although first-round draft pick Eric Berry didn't make any big plays, he did seem to be around the ball on almost every play while he was in the game. The two second-round picks from the 2010 draft were the real stars, though. It was somewhat of a shock to see Dexter McCluster lined up as a running back more often than a receiver after the team made it clear he'd contribute primarily as a slot receiver in the offense. That didn't seem to matter one bit, though, after the ball was in his hands. It's pretty obvious to me that, if he can stay healthy, McCluster will quickly become a star in Kansas City. His quickness was absolutely unmatched by the Falcon defense as he repeatedly beat the linebackers to the outside on sweeps and pitch plays for big chunks of yardage. On the end of one run, McCluster took a big-time late hit by a Falcon defender but immediately popped back up with a smile on his face. Let's hope he can continue to do that into the regular season, when the wear and tear begins to take its toll on the players' bodies.

The other second-round pick, cornerback Javier Arenas (who is also known for his speed), shined as well. It looks like the Chiefs may have finally found a comparable replacement to Dante Hall in the return game. Arenas returned three kickoffs for 85 yards, including a 42-yarder. He also had a 99-yard kickoff return for a touchdown taken off the board because of a holding penalty called on rookie free agent Justin Cole. Not bad at all for a debut.

Overall, though, the team and its fans got a healthy dose of reality Friday. Maybe all those playoff predictions were a bit premature. Or maybe not. On the one hand, you got the feeling Friday that if the starters stayed in the game, the Falcons would have won by five touchdowns. On the other, it is preseason. Just as we may have put too much stock into a solid offseason and smooth (so far) training camp, we should apply that to our analysis of Friday's disappointment and avoid jumping to conclusions just yet.

* * *

Saturday was a change of pace, as I, for the first time since April visited Kauffman Stadium to see a Royals game.*

*On April 10th, after yet another Royals' loss, I left Kauffman with the worst feeling in the pit of my stomach and vowed not to give owner/soul reaver David Glass one more dime of my money until the team put a respectable product on the field. At the time, I figured my boycott would last until opening day 2011, when there should be more reason for optimism than there is currently. What I wasn't considering was the annual trip to Kauffman some of my extended family (who come in from out of town) and I have been attending for some years now. So I went.

There was definitely some electricity in the air, as would be expected with the Yankees in town. Now, these may not be your daddy's Yankees, but the new-look Bronx Bombers did not disappoint. After splitting the first two games of the series, the Yankees brought the bats on Saturday in a big way. Alex Rodriguez, the newest member of the 600-homerun club, led the way with three absolute monster homers against three different Royals pitchers. By the time A-Roid had rounded the bases on his second long-ball, at least half of the crowd at Kauffman had joined in for a loud "Let's Go Yankees!" chant. After the third homer - which landed in the left field fountains - I was completely in awe, as I'm sure the rest of the spectators on hand were as well.

It wasn't until after the game that it really dawned on me that I had just witnessed history, or something close to it. It's not every day you get to see a member of the 600-homerun club play ball, let alone blast three in one game. Obviously, in A-Roid's quest to join the elite group (there are now only seven members) there was a lot of talk about how big of a deal the 600th homerun would be, considering his use of steroids while in high school, which he admitted to a few years back.

It's sad, really. Baseball statistics are what allowed the game to stand out. Numbers in baseball seemed to matter more, or at at least most fans believed that to be true. Now, because of steroids, the numbers just don't seem to be relevant at all. They're not real. It's impossible for the casual fan to respect the sport anymore, and the game's popularity has taken a hit because of it.

As for the Royals, they were able to split the series (which seems like a miracle in itself) after a 1-0 victory Sunday afternoon. Former first overall draft pick Brian Bullington picked up his first major league win after tossing eight innings of two-hit ball against the Yanks. I could only think of two possible explanations for this happening:  Has Bullington finally, after eight years as a pro, figured out how to pitch, or was Sunday's anomaly simply a product of Jeter and co. having one too many drinks late-Saturday night on the Kansas City bar scene? I'll let you decide on that one.*

*The players are human, too, and I'm in no way knocking having a few beers at the bar on a Saturday night. But if that indeed did take place, the Yankees ought to be embarrassed after being shutout on two hits Sunday. I feel it's worth noting that during the game Saturday, I had a conversation with my uncle where we discussed the possible clubs and bars some of the pin-stripers may hit after the game. I commented to him that if the Yankees looked sluggish the next day, then we could safely conclude they hit the town hard the night before. Combine that with the fact that they probably didn't get the chance to do much after Friday's game because of multiple rain delays, and it's pretty obvious to me how they spent their Saturday night.

* * *

Sunday, as it turned out, was the highlight of my weekend. I actually wasn't able to watch the Royals game live, because a few friends and I made the somewhat spontaneous decision to head to St. Joseph to check out a Chiefs training camp practice.

We got to Missouri Western State University with over an hour to spare until practice was scheduled to start, so we decided to walk around campus and take it all in. It didn't take long (maybe two minutes) for us to find a way to disrupt the goings-on, as we were able to stumble upon what appeared to be a player parking lot (The 250-pound beasts getting in and out of the Escalades and Camaros were a dead giveaway.). After we walked past a sign that said "Chiefs VIP Parking - not open to the public", we decided to hang out by the front door of the building, which looked to be the cafeteria, presumably where the players were eating before practice.

Just as we were considering moving on, Cassel, Brodie Croyle, and (I assume) Tyler Palko came rushing outside to head to practice. None of them had the time to stop for an autograph or picture, but as Croyle explained (he was the only one we actually asked, and I don't think Cassel liked that all too much), they would have plenty of time after practice to chat and sign an autograph or two. It wasn't long after they hopped in Croyle's (it had Alabama plates) Avalanche that a security guard came outside and pointed us toward the practice fields. Off we went.

The practice was fairly uneventful. I was impressed with the fan turnout - my guess is the total number of spectators was easily more than half than the number of people who attended Sunday's Royals game. There weren't necessarily many plays of note. The highlight was probably watching offensive coordinator Charlie Weis move around on the rascal. I mean no disrespect to people who deal with disabilities, but an NFL coach telling 300-pound grown men what to do from the seat of his rascal is comedic gold.

I've never attended an NFL training camp, so to be fair, Sunday's practice may have very well been the most interesting Chiefs practice they've ever had. I mean, it's safe to say the Chiefs are the only team with a coach calling shots from his rascal, so we have that. But with no real point of reference (I may attend Wednesday's night practice), I can't be certain.

* * *

So, what did I learn over, what some might consider, a pretty fun and entertaining weekend from a sports fan's perspective? I found out the Chiefs, even with all the perceived improvements over the offseason, still look a whole lot like they did last year. I found out the Royals have the ability to be very good and very bad in a very short period of time, but overall, they still stink. We know now, and we may have known before, just how insignificant baseball numbers and records have become.

And in St. Joseph? Well, I'm still torn as far as what to take from that experience. I know now just how entertaining it can be to watch a grown man drive a rascal all over a football field. Right now, as sports fans in Kansas City, we have to take our happiness in small, sometimes minute doses, so I'll take it.

If I get any further than that, I'll let you know.

The Big Inning

On my way to work yesterday morning I got a chance to listen to my favorite sports talk radio announcer, Soren Petro. For reasons I cannot control, I haven't gotten a chance to listen to sports radio 810 in awhile, let alone Soren.

Soren is my favorite radio personality (on all formats) for many reasons, but none more than his no b.s. tone when it comes to the inadequacy of the Chiefs and Royals. Maybe it was his time away from Kansas City at Syracuse University that helped shape his view of what we, as fans, can and should expect out of our local teams. In any event, I guess I just feel like my level of frustration with the professional teams in Kansas City is echoed during his show.

Anyway, in the first segment of his program, which happens to be called "The Program", he discussed the Royals 10-5 victory over the Twins on Sunday. The game was more or less decided by the six spot the Royals' offense posted in the third inning. I caught only a couple minutes of the segment, but the general point of Soren's spiel was that the team that scores the most runs in any one single inning, or more generally the team that has the biggest inning, will usually win the game.

Soren cited that after Sunday's win, in all Royals games, the team that had the biggest inning was 10-1-1 in those 12 games (the tie being when neither team had a bigger inning than the other). Pushing further, he raised the possibility that teams like the Royals, who often play "small ball" and sacrifice and move runners to maximize their chances of scoring at least one run in an inning, are actually hurting, not helping, their chances of winning.

So after the Royals' forgettable 8-1 loss in Toronto Monday night, I decided to research it a bit. After checking on Soren's tally and adding in Monday's game, the team that has the biggest inning is now 11-1-1 in all Royals games.

I wanted a bigger sample, though. Reviewing all Major League games through Monday, the team that has the biggest inning is 132-19-46. That's an .874 winning percentage.

I wanted to see if the trend changed from good teams to bad teams, so I researched what the records were for the teams with the best and worst records in baseball. That would be the Rays (best) and Orioles (worst). But because those two teams have played eachother six times already this season, therefore making the comparison between the two fairly obsolete, I ditched the Rays for the Phillies, who are probably the best team in baseball, anyway.

For Philadelphia's games, the big inning team was 8-2-2, and for Baltimore it was a glaring 10-0-4. So the trend continues.

Managers like the Royals' Trey Hillman will often cite the team's lack of power (lack of talent) as to why they play small ball. More or less, they're saying, "We don't hit well enough to count on the big inning, so we ought to make sure and at least score one when we can."

Soren, naturally, has a different take. He actually looks at it the opposite as Hillman or any other small ball defender does. He believes that teams like the Royals, who openly admit they're at a talent disadvantage basically every night, can even less afford to ignore a glaring trend like this, because, as previously stated, they don't have the talent to make up for it. In other words, teams like the Phillies and Yankees can win in spite of the numbers (or in spite of not "playing the numbers") more often than a team like the Royals because they're more talented.

I don't know if any of this means anything. I, as much as any other baseball junkie, have this thing with numbers. You see, it doesn't matter what the numbers are, or really, how relevant they are. You just have to have numbers, and we're happy.

I do know I'll be thinking about this the next time the Royals play for one run in an inning. Especially in a game that ends up being decided by two or three runs. "What if they didn't bunt him over? That guy might have singled, and the extra guy up in the inning would have hit the three-run home run we needed!" And so on.

I also know that with the way the Royals' bullpen has pitched, they'll be the ones GIVING UP the big inning more often than not. Actually, that's already true so far, given the Royals' record is 5-8 through Monday. Okay, so maybe the talk should be more about minizing the big inning while pitching.

And so there you have it. Another trend directly correlating to victories that can be traced back to the bullpen's struggles. Many a Royals manager have tried and failed at solving that riddle. My guess is, possibly to no fault of his own, Hillman won't find the answer, either.

These Are Certainly Our Royals

Don't act like you didn't see it coming. Let's not pretend for one minute that what I, along with 40,000 overly-faithful Royals fans saw on opening day at Kauffman Stadium Monday wasn't in the back of our minds the whole time. Yet still, we just couldn't believe our eyes.

After six strong innings from Cy Young award winner Zack Greinke, the Royals took a 4-2 lead over the Detroit Tigers into the bottom of the seventh inning, needing two decent innings from their middle relievers to get the game to their lights-out closer Joakim Soria.

Hold your breath, everybody!

Roman Colon, Robinson Tejeda, and Juan Cruz combined to give up six runs on six hits in the inning. By the time three outs were recorded, the cheers at the K had turned to boos - loud boos - and the Tigers had blown open an 8-4 advantage. Game over.

Though it wasn't game over, right? There was still two innings to play. No, we just know these Royals all too well. Everyone at the ballpark yesterday knew the game was over because these are OUR Royals. In the eighth, with two on and one out, and the Royals' best hitter Billy Butler on deck, third base coach Dave Owen sent CATCHER Jason Kendall home from second on a single up the middle off the bat of Scott Podsednik. Kendall, naturally, was thrown out. Had he stayed at third, the bases would have been loaded for Butler and clean-up hitter Rick Ankiel, where one swing of the bat could tie the game.

Being down four runs late in a ball game, that's a dream scenerio for a team to find itself in. Yet the Royals took themselves right back out of the opportunity without the obstacle of oppositional skill.

It's classic Royals baseball folks. I'd expect nothing less.

What's amazing is the Royals tried to give us a sign of things to come early on. The Tigers scored the first run of the game in the top of the first because of a dropped pop-up by third baseman Willie Bloomquist. That's right, third baseman Willie Bloomquist. That in itself deserves a chuckle. But after a winter of defensive-minded free agent signings and a spring of 'pressing the fundamentals' and 'going back to the basics', the Royals found a way to drop a pop-up in the top half of the first inning of the first game of the season. Wow.

I've heard the argument that it's just one game, there are 161 more to go, and so on. Actually, I've made that argument a time or two. And the argument surely holds water. I was on hand for the miracle ninth inning comeback on opening day in 2004, just six months removed from the near postseason run the 2003 squad made. Driving home that April day in 2004, I absolutely was convinced those Royals were finally ready to bring playoff baseball back to Kansas City. Obviously, that didn't happen. Those Royals lost 100 or so games and most-to-all of that roster has never been heard from again.

So, we know one loss doesn't mean the end the world. Both the Yankees and Phillies, last year's World Series teams, lost on opening day.

But opening day means something more. It's the unofficial start of summer. The Royals are undefeated. Hope is alive and well. I've attended a handful of opening day games at the K in the last couple decades, and one thing about them remains constant every year: For one day, the city gathers and parties and gets to watch a ball game for the first time in months. It's a celebration that's bigger than the Royals or any other team. It's really something special.

Yet it is an opportunity, with more eyes watching than normal, for the Royals to show something to the non-believers. Yesterday was a chance for the Royals to start a new, as we fans have been begging to happen for nearly two full decades. Yesterday was a chance for the Royals to start winning.

With 40,000 fans along side myself in attendance, loyal to the unloyal and hearts on our sleeves, we watched as the Royals walked out on us once again, testing our patience and our faith. But we knew this would happen. These are OUR Royals, and they may just never change.